News & Reports

The new harvest is progressing well, with only brief delays expected in Vietnam’s coffee-growing regions over the next 10 days. Minimal rainfall (10 mm) is forecasted in coffee areas for the next two weeks, setting favorable conditions for harvesting. With farmer target prices at 100,000 VND/kg, we anticipate steady crop flow from farmers to shippers within the month.

Vietnam’s coffee exports in October 2024, particularly of green Robusta beans, reached multi-year lows due to a mix of contributing factors. First, record-low carry-over stocks significantly reduced available export volume. Second, the 2024/25 harvest has been delayed, slowing the flow of new crop coffee to market.

Starting in November, rates are likely to increase further with the General Rate Increase (GRI) rollout. With limited cargo space, carriers will reintroduce premium services on November 1, at $2,000 per container, which guarantees space along with priority Estimated Time of Departure (ETD) or specific transit time options.

Most farmers sold out their stocks by the end of July and August at prices ranging from 124,000 to 128,000 VND/kg. Forward sales by farmers are significantly lower this year, estimated at just 1%-2% of the crop so far, compared to 3%-5% at the same time last year.

Vietnam coffee stocks continue to decline, reaching their lowest point in recent history. “Visible” coffee stks at the end of August 2024 were 119,136 tons, a 25.72% decrease from the previous month and a 29.27% drop from the same period last year. This stock level is also 55.97% lower than the previous 5-year average.

The COT report has not been released for 3 weeks which seriously limits market transparency. However, the reduction in OI suggests that funds may have been covering their short positions during this period.